Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
